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Chahine Capital Investment Monthly Report
January 2025

9 January 2025

Read this article
Chahine Capital

Investment Monthly Report
January 2025

9 January 2025

As every month, you can read our investment report, in which we offer you a macroeconomic analysis of the market, a presentation of the performance of our funds and their results.

You can also watch our video update on the Digital Funds range.

After the powerful rise observed in November following the US election, the traditional year-end rally did not extend into December (MSCI Europe NR -0.5%, MSCI USA NR -2.6%). Nevertheless, 2024 will remain a good year for equity indices (MSCI Europe NR +8.6%, MSCI USA NR +24.6%), and more importantly, will mark a salutary rupture with the years 2020-2023, dominated by a lack of visibility. The main event of 2024 was the initiation of an accommodating monetary policy by the central banks, in June for the ECB and in September for the Fed, which had already been anticipated in the second half of 2023, a sign of renewed macro-economic visibility. The year 2025 looks set to be a pivotal one, during which investors are likely to focus on the setting up of the Trump administration and its consequences for the global economy. Europe, with its low valuation and supported by rate cuts that are unlikely to weaken during the first half of the year, is not without strengths for investors.

Digital Stars Europe Acc posted a -0.1% decrease in December, outperforming by +0.4% the MSCI Europe NR. The fund ended the year 2024 up +14.5%, outperforming its index by +5.9%.

Throughout 2024, the fund benefited from its strong stock selection, supported by a well-oriented positioning. The overweighting of financials (BPER, Sabadell, Unipol Assicurazioni, 3i Group, etc.) and industrials (Kongsberg, Konecranes, Prysmian, etc.), together with the underweighting of consumer discretionary (especially luxury) and consumer staples, contributed positively to the fund’s outperformance, in line with a year favourable to value and cyclical growth. The portfolio reviews carried out in December were diversified, mainly increasing our positions in the consumer discretionary and healthcare sectors. Among the exits were mainly companies from the industry sector. Digital Stars Europe is significantly overweight financials and industrials, and underweight healthcare, consumer staples and consumer discretionary. The UK remains the fund’s top weight at 26.6%, ahead of Italy (biggest overweight) at 15.8% and Switzerland at 10.0%. With a 4.5% weight, France remains the largest country underweight.

Digital Stars Continental Europe Acc ended December at -0.7%, outperforming by +0.1% the MSCI Europe ex UK NR (-0.8%). The fund ended the year 2024 up +12.4%, outperforming its index by +6.0%.

During all year 2024, the fund benefited from its strong stock selection, supported by a well-oriented positioning. The overweighting of financials (BPER, Swissquote, BPM, etc.) and industrials (Kongsberg, Konecranes, MAIRE, etc.), together with the underweighting of consumer discretionary (especially luxury) and consumer staples, contributed positively to the fund’s outperformance, in line with a year favourable to value and cyclical growth. The portfolio reviews carried out in December were diversified, mainly increasing positions in finance and consumer discretionary. Among the exits were mainly stocks in the industry sector, as well as in communication services and real estate. Digital Stars Continental Europe is overweight in industry, finance and real estate, and underweight in consumer discretionary, IT, consumer staples and healthcare. Italy (first overweight) is still the fund’s top weight at 18.8%, ahead of Switzerland at 13.3% and Germany at 12.4%. With a 6.4% weight, France remains the largest country underweight.

Digital Stars Eurozone Acc achieved +1.5% in December, outperforming by +0.2% the MSCI EMU NR (+1.4%). The fund ended the year 2024 up +15.1%, outperforming its index by +5.6%.

The fund benefited from a strong stock selection throughout 2024, and from a well-oriented positioning. The main contributors were in finance (BPER, ANIMA Holdings), industry (Konecranes, Prysmian) and technology (SÜSS MicroTec, SAP). About the fund’s positioning, it was mainly the underweight of the three less-performing sectors of the year that made the difference: consumer staples, energy (the fund’s reinforced ESG policy led to the absence of stocks in this sector) and materials. The portfolio reviews carried out in December were marked by increased positions in the utilities and healthcare sectors. Among the outflows were mainly industrial and media stocks. Finance remains the fund’s main overweight, ahead of real estate, consumer discretionary, healthcare and IT. The fund is underweight in the consumer staples, materials and industry sectors. Italy becomes the largest country weight at 22.9%, followed by Germany at 20.5% and France at 19.8%. Italy remains the most overweight country, and France the most underweight.

Digital Stars Europe Smaller Companies Acc ended December at 0%, vs. -0.3% for the MSCI Europe Small Cap NR. The fund ended the year 2024 up +16.0%, outperforming its index by +10.4%.

The year was marked by an excellent stock selection in the fund and a relatively neutral positioning compared with the index. The biggest contributors to the year’s performance were mainly financials (BPER, CMC Markets) and construction-related stocks (Titan Cement, Heijmans, Buzzi, MAIRE, BAM Groep). On the other hand, specialised distribution stocks penalised the strategy. The portfolio reviews carried out in December were marked by increased positions in IT, consumer discretionary and materials. Among the outflows were mainly industrial, financial and real estate stocks. The portfolio is now mainly overweight in financials, healthcare and consumer staples, and underweight in consumer discretionary, real estate and technology. The UK remains the portfolio’s largest weighting at 28.7%, ahead of Sweden at 11.2% and Switzerland at 11.0%.

Digital Stars US Equities Acc USD ended December down -6.3%, vs. -2.6% for the MSCI USA NR and -7.8% for the MSCI USA Small Cap NR. The fund ended the year 2024 up +27.9%, significantly ahead of the MSCI USA NR at +24.6% and of the MSCI USA Small Cap NR at +11.6%.

In December, the FED’s announcement that the US rate cut would soon be terminated was followed by a sharp fall in US small and mid caps, wiping out two-thirds of November’s outperformance following Donald Trump’s election. With its “all-cap” profile, the fund was negatively impacted by this announcement, but continued to outperform in the post-election period. Year 2024 was shaped by an excellent stock selection for the fund, particularly in the technology sector, with the likes of AppLovin, NVIDIA, Palantir and, more recently, Arista Networks, DocuSign and Cloudflare. The latest monthly portfolio review mainly strengthened positions in the media, healthcare and real estate sectors, and reduced positions in consumer discretionary. The fund is overweight in finance and industry. The most underweight sectors remain IT, as well as consumer discretionary and energy.

Chahine Capital Macro Update – January 2025

7 January 2025

Chahine Capital

Macro Update – January 2025

7 January 2025

Chahine Capital Investment Monthly Report
December 2024

10 December 2024

Chahine Capital

Investment Monthly Report
December 2024

10 December 2024

As every month, you can read our investment report, in which we offer you a macroeconomic analysis of the market, a presentation of the performance of our funds and their results.

 

You can also watch our video update on the Digital Funds range.

 

 

 

The month of November, whose most significant event was Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, proved highly volatile, particularly for European equity markets, which nonetheless ended slightly up (MSCI Europe NR +1.1%), but lagging behind US indices (MSCI USA NR +6.2%).

The frequency with which political news weighs on markets has clearly accelerated since the Lehman Brothers crisis. A source of short-term volatility, it is also a source of longer-term opportunities. Events often contradict a general feeling of “the moment”, tetanized by risk alone, and all too quickly sweep aside positive counterbalances. Who could have predicted in 2011 that by 2024 Greece would be financing itself on the same terms as France, or that Italy’s unemployment rate would be lower than Germany’s? In 2016, the reaction of the financial markets also contradicted the alarmist forecasts of some commentators during the Brexit vote, just as it did during Mr. Trump’s first accession to power.

Fundamental, cyclical and behavioural elements remain supportive at this stage, with a sustained economic momentum, an accommodating central bank pivot, attractive valuations in Europe and buoyant seasonality, all of which give reasons to hope that the stock market rally will continue in the coming months.

Digital Stars Europe Acc posted a +1.1% increase in November, in line with the MSCI Europe NR. The fund is up +14.6% since the beginning of the year, outperforming its index by +5.5%.

The fund’s sector positioning was favourable and enabled it to weather well the difficult post-election backdrop. In particular, the overweight of industrials and financials and the underweighting of healthcare, consumer staples and consumer discretionary, made a positive contribution in relative terms. But the strong performances of our financials (3i Group, Talanx, NatWest) and cement stocks (Heidelberg, CRH) contrasted with the declines in some other stocks, particularly certain semiconductor stocks which were hit hard by the US decision to ban all trade with Chinese chipmakers. The portfolio reviews carried out in November were diversified, mainly increasing our positions in the finance and consumer discretionary sectors. Among the exits were mainly companies from the IT and industry sectors. Digital Stars Europe is significantly overweight industrials and financials, and underweight healthcare, consumer staples and consumer discretionary. The UK has been significantly reinforced and remains the fund’s top weight at 25.5%, ahead of Italy (first overweight) at 15.3% and Germany at 10.8%. With a 5.0% weight, France remains the largest country underweight.

Digital Stars Continental Europe Acc ended November at +0.4%, outperforming by +0.3% the MSCI Europe ex UK NR (+0.1%). The fund is up +13.2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming its index by +5.9%.

The fund’s sector positioning was favourable and enabled it to weather well the difficult post-election backdrop. In particular, the overweight of industrials and real estate and the underweighting of consumer staples, consumer discretionary and healthcare, made a positive contribution in relative terms. But the strong performances of our financials (Swissquote, Talanx, Banco BPM) and cement stocks (Buzzi, Heidelberg, CRH) contrasted with the declines in some industrials (NKT, Nexans) and also certain semiconductors which were hit hard by the US decision to ban all trade with Chinese chipmakers. The portfolio reviews carried out in November were diversified, mainly increasing positions in finance. Among the exits were mainly stocks in the materials sector (chemicals and paper), as well as in industry and IT. Digital Stars Continental Europe is overweight in industrials and real estate, and underweight in healthcare, consumer discretionary, consumer staples and IT. Italy (first overweight) is still the fund’s top weight at 17.3%, ahead of Switzerland at 14.1% and Germany at 13.6%. With a 7.2% weight, France remains the largest country underweight.

Digital Stars Eurozone Acc achieved -0.3% in November, vs. +0.1% for the MSCI EMU NR. The fund is up +13.4% since the beginning of the year, outperforming its index by +5.4%.

The fund’s sector positioning was favourable: the overweighting of financials and the underweighting of technology and consumer staples practically offset the overweighting of small- and mid-cap stocks. The portfolio reviews carried out in November were marked by increased positions in the utilities and healthcare sectors. Among the outflows were mainly industrial and media stocks. Finance remains the fund’s main overweight, ahead of real estate, media, consumer discretionary and industrials. The fund is underweight in the consumer staples, utilities, materials and energy sectors. Germany represents the largest weighting at 22%, followed by Italy at 20.1% and France at 19.7%. Italy remains the most overweight country, and France the most underweight.

Digital Stars Europe Smaller Companies Acc ended November up +1.0%, vs. +1.2% for the MSCI Europe Small Cap NR. The fund is up +15.9% since the beginning of the year, outperforming its index by +10.0%.

The fund’s sector positioning was favourable: the overweighting of financials and the underweighting of technology and consumer discretionary virtually offset the overweighting of smaller stocks. The portfolio reviews carried out in November were marked by increased positions in materials and consumer discretionary. Among the outflows were mainly healthcare and industrial stocks. There was a net increase in exposure to the UK this month, bringing it back almost in line with the index. The portfolio is now mainly overweight in financials, healthcare and consumer staples, and underweight in consumer discretionary, real estate and technology. The UK remains the portfolio’s largest weighting at 29.1%, ahead of Sweden at 12.8% and Switzerland at 10.8%.

Digital Stars US Equities Acc USD ended November up +11.0%, outperforming both the MSCI USA NR at +6.2% and the MSCI USA Small Cap NR at +10.2%. The fund is up +36.5% since the beginning of the year, vs. +27.9% for the MSCI USA NR and +21.0% for the MSCI USA Small Cap NR.

The fund’s overweighting of small and mid-caps, as well as financial stocks, enabled it to benefit from the outcome of the US elections. In addition, strong earnings announcements from technology stocks such as AppLovin (+98% this month) enabled the fund to end November on a high note, outperforming its index by +4.8%, as well as the small and mid-cap segment. The fund remains overweighted in finance and industry. The most underweight sectors remain technology, media and energy.